Yang Bok’s security briefing] Can Pyongyang be made into a wreckage?

Yang Bok’s security briefing] Can Pyongyang be made into a wreckage?

The North Korean nuclear issue became a reality beyond worry. As always, the people are only thinking about North Korea’s nuclear test as an annual event. Even after two nuclear tests this year. In addition, the last 5th nuclear test is a nuclear warhead explosion experiment. That is, from the 1st to the 4th, nuclear explosives samples were mass-produced at the 5th level, only to confirm the ability of the nuclear material to burst or not. 10 kilotons of destructive power, but the ability is weak nuclear bomb. Now, North Korea can load the warheads into the desired products among the 1,000 missiles and shoot them.

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North Korea has made the nuclear threat real, but there are not many alternatives for us. Of course, the nuclear umbrella of the United States is still spreading on the Korean peninsula through the ROK – US Mutual Defense Treaty. Though the value of tactical nuclear weapons has diminished as modern nuclear weapons change, the Nuclear Triad, which is equivalent to the nuclear power of the United States, is still guarding the Republic of Korea. In particular, the United States sent warning messages to North Korea when it tested its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch whenever it threatened the security of the Republic of Korea or Japan.

The nuclear umbrella provided by the United States is of concern. The role of the strategic nuclear bomber has been reduced, and the other two components, the ICBM and the SLBM, are too old and need to be upgraded. If Trump was elected as a concrete commitment to the modernization of nuclear weapons, Hillary was elected, and the nuclear weapons remained obsolete and almost disappeared. Fortunately, the lack of nuclear retaliatory capability complements some of the missile defense systems, such as the THAAD (high-altitude missile defense system) and the ballistic missile interceptor missile (SM-3). It is frustrating to our position that there is no sardina or SM-3 yet.

North Korea's Chosun Central TV reported on September 13 that it held Pyongyang militia reunion contest to celebrate the success of the nuclear war explosion test at Pyongyang Kim Il Sung Square.  The photo shows the venue where the central TV was recorded and broadcasted on the day. © Chosun Central Communication Association

North Korea’s Chosun Central TV reported on September 13 that it held Pyongyang militia reunion contest to celebrate the success of the nuclear war explosion test at Pyongyang Kim Il Sung Square. The photo shows the venue where the central TV was recorded and broadcasted on the day. © Chosun Central Communication Association

The emergence of tailored suppression strategies

The response strategy that emerged when the North Korean nuclear crisis began to be recognized as a serious risk factor after the Third Nuclear Test was a customized suppression strategy. The customized restraint strategy was announced at the 45th SCM (US-ROK Security Consultative Meeting) on ​​October 2, 2013. If the North Korean nuclear power shows the possibility of being used in the war, it will cope with the situations according to each stage by appropriate means.

Here is the line. First, North Korea is divided into three stages: threatening to attack with nuclear weapons, imminent use of nuclear weapons, and using nuclear weapons. In the first stage of the threat, it is not the actual action but the word, but it is an aggressive act that does not hide the intent of the attack. As a result, the United Nations sanctions against North Korea, which diplomatically isolates and economically oppresses North Korea, is in operation, and military demonstrations are conducted through military exercises such as joint US-ROK training and deployment of US strategic assets. Indeed, the two countries have been steadily implementing these measures since October 2013, as North Korea has threatened to use it.

When the use is at an imminent stage, the response is also different. First of all, there will be 200 units of missile launch vehicles such as Scud, Labor, and Sudan, which North Korea possesses, and the Kill Chain will be operated when a submarine that launches SLBM is deployed. It is the kill chain to find the location of these threats with various reconnaissance assets and then destroy its origins in about 25 minutes with fighter planes, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and so on. The kill chain can be viewed as a limited but preemptive attack, since the enemy starts the attack and not the friendly but the attack before it is attacked.

In spite of this killer chain operation, it is not possible to destroy all enemy attack means. Or an enemy missile that could not be detected in advance may fly toward our territory. At this point, it is the Korean missile defense system (KAMD) that intercepts enemy missiles in the air. KAMD requires a radar capable of detecting enemy missiles and a missile capable of intercepting tanks in the air. We use Super Green pine radar for detection and Patriot PAC-2, PAC-3 (to be introduced) and Domestic M-SAM and L-SAM (under development) for intercept.

However, there are many who worry about this customized restraining strategy. Will the kill chain and KAMD work properly? If we really have such an operational capability, will North Korea give up the attack? Kill Chains and KAMD are fundamentally defensive measures. In short, if an enemy missile attack is a window, the kill chain and KAMD are shields. The shield is big and thick and the enemy will not give up attacking with the spear. Rather, it finds out where it can not be blocked by a shield. It is a very innocent idea that the enemy is a nuclear weapon, which is a nuclear weapon and threatens our survival. We needed a more aggressive strategy.

Infiltration of Ground Army Special Operations Helicopter MH-47 penetration scene © Yang Wook

Infiltration of Ground Army Special Operations Helicopter MH-47 penetration scene © Yang Wook

“Attack is the best defense” … Need an aggressive strategy

As North Korea conducted a fifth nuclear test on September 9, 2016, that night, our troops took out the most extreme cards. It is KMPR. KMPR is the term of mass media punishment and retaliation in Korea. If North Korea shows signs of using nuclear weapons, Kim Jung-eun plans to directly target the headquarters, which is headed by the Labor Party chairperson, and retaliate against punishment. Our military, which does not have nuclear weapons, has limited means to bring fear to North Korea. That is the way to do precision missiles, such as the Hyunmoo 2 ballistic missile, the Hyundai 3-cruise missile, the F-35A stealth fighter to be introduced from 2018, and the special forces that can carry out the battle.

Eventually, the KMPR is added up, and our military responds to the North Korean threat with a three-axis system. In other words, if the signs of North Korean missile attack are clear, the Kill Chain will preemptively launch (1-axis) mobile launchers and stationary facilities, intercept missiles with 2-axis missile defense system (KMD) The KMPR plan (3-axis). The synergistic effect of the three plans is to have the ability to completely dismantle North Korea.

But as soon as it first appeared, the KMPR got a lot of criticism and ridicule. The question of how to make Pyongyang shattered without nuclear weapons came out immediately. Also, at KMPR, special forces have to infiltrate the enemy, and it is also questioned whether they are capable. In order to penetrate countries like North Korea that are investing heavily in the superpowers, special operational aircraft are needed, but only the United States holds them. It was doubtful how KMPR would be possible without our ability to penetrate the enemy. In addition, a special ground unit must be used in order to hit a target accurately with a fighter or ballistic missile. The more quickly you infiltrate them with your enemies, the more power your missiles and bombs do. Under the North Korean nuclear threat, offensive capability is the best defense. Also, the offensive ability depends on the ability to infiltrate into the enemy.

You will not be able to resist the cruel punishment.

You will not be able to resist the cruel punishment.

Kim Jong Eun, a grateful leader, succeeded again in the second test launch of the “Mars-14” type of intercontinental ballistic rocket that was conducted under his command.

On July 4th, the first intercontinental ballistic rocket “Hwaseong-14” test was launched successfully, and the US and its followers were invited to take a passbook. Today, it is the second time that the intercontinental ballistic rocket “Mars- As the news of success, I imagine that the Americans will be stunned.

The first successful launch of the “Hwaseong-14” type of the intercontinental ballistic rocket was the result of the unexpected national power of the Juche shipbuilding, which was developed at a rapid pace along with the new bike path of the Great Workers’ Party of Korea, and the power of the self- It is a great demonstration and a special event for the history of the Republic of Korea, which has long been a desperate force for the nation’s defense force.

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In this delightful breeding experience, the devotion of our Lokong Decadence Army members becomes even more tenfold.

Those who are still dreaming and dreaming of watching the sacred land of the republic, while continuing to blow the warless noble war, will not be able to face merciless punishment.

The enemy Kim Jong Eun

The enemy Kim Jong Eun

He took a picture with the attendees of the 8th Korea Contest.

Kim Jong Eun, the Chairman of the Labor Party of the DPRK, Chairman of the State Council of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and the Supreme Commander of the Korean People ‘s Army, took a commemorative photo with the participants of the eighth meeting of the Korean Chosun Dynasty.

WPK Central Committee Political Bureau Standing Committee and the Democratic People’s Republic of China State Council Vice Chairman and Central Committee vice chairman of choeryong’s comrades and party WPK Central Committee Director Li part comrade, Kim IlseongKim Jeongil attention Youth League in the Central Committee first secretary dedicated southeast magazine here. Respectively.

In the background of the glorious meeting place where the eighth enemy of the Joseon Dynasty of Korea was held in honor of the dear enemy, there was a great excitement in the scene of the great enthusiasm and joy of the participants who made a meaningful memorial picture desiring the dream.

That reverence un enemy’s God -party attend filming all participants are great for nimdeul generalissimo the Lord and naesewo by all means and define the merging of the precious treasure that can not be comparable to gold and silver treasures of eokmangeum our student boy, hope and the future world all giving embraced the happiness of reverence for the enemy’s looking up teochyeo raised cheers of “Hurray!” like a storm.

Dearest enemy, The boys ‘representatives put up a bouquet of fragrant and attached a red tie with the heart of the students’ boys all over the country.

My dearest enemy, the 8th meeting of the Korean Chosun Dynasty said that it would be an important occasion to strengthen and develop the Chosun Dynasty forever by its name Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il Boy Scouts, while maintaining the tradition of the anti-Japanese children’s group, Baekdu’s bloodline, He has enthusiastically congratulated the participants of the contest who showed off the majesty of the 3 million boys who are firmly preparing for the reliable replacement of construction and true alliances of the youth alliance.

To reverence the enemy’s He contestants are our revolution and independent boy caused a new revolutionary transition from Boy Scouts project to meet the needs of sports development take ryongma of jideokche the Young Pioneer Corps going to always be prepared for the socialist Korea ‘s Mount Baekdu powers to the ranks of the future hero He took a memorial picture with them expressing his expectation and conviction that he would make a strong effort.

After the ceremony was over, he looked up at the enemy who was reverting again.

In the midst of his busy schedule to lead the construction of a socialist powerhouse, he organized the 8th Chosun Dynasty’s Eighth Conference, and attended the congress in person. He gave me a kind of guidance in the outpouring of the voluntary youth movement. Today, The daring father who took a picture overflowed with gratitude and gratitude to the enemy of the enemy, and the participants shed tears of thrill and shed.

Full Participants me increasingly touches added to reverence the enemy’s cherished and glorious ever HS with great love and faith Kim Ilseong , Kim Jong Il of the Boy Scouts waving the red quirky grow eoksege as the heir of the Revolution, gidunggam continue carrying floating rigid Korea’s future He made a firm oath.

South Korea’s women’s soccer matches against North Korea today

South Korea’s women’s soccer matches against North Korea today

Yoon Deok lie to North Korea in the first place. It is expected that 50,000 spectators and Kim Jong Eun will appear as variables in the two teams’ contests.

South Korea will play the second match of the 2018 Asian Football Confederation (AFC) Women’s Asian Cup Group B qualifier at Kim Il-sung Stadium in North Pyongyang at 3:30 pm on July 7.

In addition to Korea and North Korea, there are Uzbekistan, India and Hong Kong. However, South Korea and North Korea are far ahead in objective power, and a smiling team will likely advance to the women’s Asian Cup finals in Jordan next April.

A total of eight countries, including China, Japan, Australia and Jordan, which have already secured entry tickets, will participate in the finals. The top five countries will be given the right to participate in the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2019. If South Korea is to beat North Korea and enter the Jordanian Asian Cup, it will be the fifth place in the world so it is the watershed for Korea’s second consecutive World Cup finals.

The two teams did not finish the game by hiding the ‘window’ in the game on the 5th. North Korea put a star in the first half of the match against Hong Kong starter Hwang Hwang as a starter, but in the middle of the first half, he put forward a tendency.

North Korea’s national team coach Kim Kwang-min said, “I know all the stars in Asia. I thought it would be more effective to replace the inclination.” Shin Seong-shim, who won the Silver Ball at the U-17 Women’s World Cup last year, led North Korea to victory.

South Korea also scored a 10-0 victory over India in the same day. He did not put in the captain and core midfielder Josho Hyun, and put a strong orthodoxy into the second half. North Korean reporters were asked about the replacement of Joo Sung-hyun’s colon and Jeongseol Bin after the match against India.

Both Koreas and North Korean directors are ahead of each other in the face of confrontation, “I will pour everything I have.

One of the biggest variables in the face-to-face match between two teams that emphasized mental strength is unilateral support from the North Korean crowd. About 15,000 people visited the stadium on the last three days and five days when North Korea played two games. However, it seems that 50,000 people will be full in this game. The Kim Il Sung Stadium has a structure that makes the crowd shout.

However, it is unclear to which side this energy will be beneficial. There is also a view that North Korea will be psychologically burdensome because it has never played in front of a large home crowd. The Korean athletes said, “We will be doing our best to support us.”

In addition, the presence of top North Korean officials can be a variable. On May 5, when North Korea played against Hong Kong, Choi Young-sun, vice chairman of the State Council, appeared. There is also an analysis that Kim Jong Eun, chairman of the National Assembly, will come to the game against Korea. It is expected to affect North Korean players’ spiritual strength. North Korean reporters were asked about the replacement of Joo Sung-hyun’s colon and Jeongseol Bin after the match against India. Both Koreas and North Korean directors are ahead of each other in the face of confrontation, “I will pour everything I have. One of the biggest variables in the face-to-face match between two teams that emphasized mental strength is unilateral support of North Korean spectators. About 15,000 people visited the stadium on the last three days and five days when North Korea played two games. However, it seems that 50,000 people will be full in this game. The Kim Il Sung Stadium has a structure that makes the crowd shout. However, it is unclear to which side this energy will be beneficial. There is also a view that North Korea will be psychologically burdensome because it has never played in front of a large home crowd. The Korean athletes said, “We will be doing our best to support us.” In addition, the presence of top North Korean officials can be a variable. On May 5, when North Korea played against Hong Kong, Choi Young-sun, vice chairman of the State Council, appeared. There is also an analysis that Kim Jong Eun, chairman of the National Assembly, will come to the game against Korea. It is expected to affect North Korean players’ spiritual strength. North Korean reporters were asked about the replacement of Joo Sung-hyun’s colon and Jeongseol Bin after the match against India. Both Koreas and North Korean directors are ahead of each other in the face of confrontation, “I will pour everything I have. One of the biggest variables in the face-to-face match between two teams that emphasized mental strength is unilateral support of North Korean spectators. About 15,000 people visited the stadium on the last three days and five days when North Korea played two games. However, it seems that 50,000 people will be full in this game. The Kim Il Sung Stadium has a structure that makes the crowd shout. However, it is unclear to which side this energy will be beneficial. There is also a view that North Korea will be psychologically burdensome because it has never played in front of a large home crowd. The Korean athletes said, “We will be doing our best to support us.” In addition, the presence of top North Korean officials can be a variable. On May 5, when North Korea played against Hong Kong, Choi Young-sun, vice chairman of the State Council, appeared. There is also an analysis that Kim Jong Eun, chairman of the National Assembly, will come to the game against Korea. It is expected to affect North Korean players’ spiritual strength. The Kim Il Sung Stadium has a structure that makes the crowd shout. However, it is unclear to which side this energy will be beneficial. There is also a view that North Korea will be psychologically burdensome because it has never played in front of a large home crowd. The Korean athletes said, “We will be doing our best to support us.” In addition, the presence of top North Korean officials can be a variable. On May 5, when North Korea played against Hong Kong, Choi Young-sun, vice chairman of the State Council, appeared. There is also an analysis that Kim Jong Eun, chairman of the National Assembly, will come to the game against Korea. It is expected to affect North Korean players’ spiritual strength. The Kim Il Sung Stadium has a structure that makes the crowd shout. However, it is unclear to which side this energy will be beneficial. There is also a view that North Korea will be psychologically burdensome because it has never played in front of a large home crowd. The Korean athletes said, “We will be doing our best to support us.” In addition, the presence of top North Korean officials can be a factor. On May 5, when North Korea played against Hong Kong, Choi Young-sun, vice chairman of the State Council, appeared. There is also an analysis that Kim Jong Eun, chairman of the National Assembly, will come to the game against Korea. It is expected to affect North Korean players’ spiritual strength.

North Korea Announces Negative Stance on ‘Holding Kaesong’ in 6.15 Joint Event

North Korea Announces Negative Stance on ‘Holding Kaesong’ in 6.15 Joint Event

6.15 The North Korean government has made a negative stance on the proposal by the South Korean committee to host the 6.15 joint event at ‘Kaesong’, and it has been confirmed on the 5th that private organizations such as the Korean people’s mutual aid campaign have been postponed.

Lee Seung-hwan, a joint delegation of the South Korean Committee for the June 15 Joint Declaration (June 15), confirmed that “it was difficult to hold individuality.”

6.15 The South Korean Committee has proposed to hold a 6.15 joint event in Kaesong immediately after the government received the application for contact with North Korean residents on March 31.

6.15 An official from the South Korean committee said, “Once North Korea has expressed its negative stance on holding the 6.15 joint event in Gaeseong,” the 6.15 joint event itself will continue to be pursued even if difficulties are anticipated and the North is preparing to hold Pyongyang I left the room.

Kang Young-sik, secretary-general of the Korea People’s Movement for Helping the Korean Nation, confirmed that he “canceled the support of malaria control materials scheduled this week and the visit to the delegation on the 10th.”

The Korean people’s movement to help each other was reported to have received the application for contact with the North Korean residents on the 26th of last month, and carried out the removal of malaria control materials and the visit of the joint delegation.
“We have received news from the North that we should not be here this time, and now it is embarrassing,” said Park Chang-il, the chairman of the Peace and 3,000 steering committee, who is in the process of visiting the delegation. “I think it is because the government put the position on the UN Security Council. It will take a little more time. ”

An official from a private organization said, “We seem to be dissatisfied with the fact that the Korean government is actively responding to the UN sanctions against North Korea.” In this situation, it was impossible to make any kind of exchange, said.

“The Korean government supports the unanimous adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2356 on June 3 in response to the continued ballistic missile launch by North Korea,” the South Korean government said in a statement issued on March 3, It is evaluated once again the determination of the international society’s willingness, “he said.

An official from the Ministry of Unification said, “Nothing has been confirmed yet.”

Life in North Korea

Life in North Korea

Great post over at North Korean Economy Watch on life inside North Korea. The post concerns a report by the Chairman of Good Friends, held at SAIS US-Korea Institute. Good friends is a South Korean NGO operating in North Korea and China, assisting refugees and alleviating hunger. It puts in a great effort, despite difficult political conditions. Visit North Korean Economy Watch to read the highlights or go straight to the audio from the source at SAIS US-Korea Institute.

USIP working paper on disabling DPRK nuclear facilities

USIP working paper on disabling DPRK nuclear facilities

There is a new United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Working Paper entitled “Disabling DPRK nuclear facilities” written by David Albright and Paul Brannan. From the working paper:

The primary goals of this Working Paper are twofold. First, to establish a definition for the term “disablement” which has only recently achieved widespread usage in the disarmament and nonproliferation community. Second, to outline the types of steps that will or could be taken at key facilities in the DPRK to achieve various disablement objectives.

It is a very good paper from a very reputable source. If you want to know more (and learn exactly what is going on behind the political jargon being thrown around) then this is an excellent read. Basically what it is all about is:

…the disablement of a facility has come to mean a deliberate, mutually agreed action or set of actions taken to make it relatively more difficult and time-consuming to restart a facility after it is shut down. Disablement actions go beyond simply shutting down, sealing, and monitoring a facility. Although disablement steps can be reversed and the facility restarted, it would take an extended period of time to do so.

The paper goes on to give a very readable explanation of exactly how disablement should proceed. It also gives a range of options on medium to permanent disablement of DPRK facilities.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the paper to me was not just the useful explanation, but also the insight into the negotiations. In particular, the following lines:

According to one participant in the negotiations, the DPRK did not want the IAEA to become involved in the disablement process, and instead wanted the United States to do the disabling. The other parties objected to this essentially bilateral process, wanting their own assurances about disablement. The compromise was that the United States would take the lead on disablement.

It really makes me wonder. What were the possible reasons for the DPRK to not want the IAEA involved? Why did they prefer the US to do the disablement?

He didn’t speak much but his hands were warm…

He didn’t speak much but his hands were warm…

I don’t know, but I think this may be going a bit far… Lee Su-Hoon, chairman of the Presidential Committee on the Northeast Asia Cooperation Initiative in an article on Korea.net gives his impressions of Kim Jong Il:

Kim Jong-il, the leader of North Korea too showed calmness in his posture. But there was strength in his voice. Watching him at the welcome luncheon Lee had a feeling the North’s strongman had a good sense of what’s going on and was well versed in professional knowledge.

“I shook hands with him on the first day of the welcoming ceremony. He didn’t speak much but his hands were warm. Other officials said they felt the same, too”

There seems to be a certain sense of awe in the article’s treatment of Kim Jong-Il. Almost reminds me of other articles I’ve seen regarding Kim Jong-Il, like this one:

General Secretary Kim Jong Il is a prominent man with a long memory. He remembers exploits of famous masters and small and great political events of all ages and countries, significance and definite numbers of all creations by mankind, and names, ages and birthdays of those people he met…

Actually, that last one comes from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) [’G.S. Kim Kong Il’s long memory’, 3 April 1998] But heck, there ain’t much difference nowadays between the ROK Government’s views of Kim Jong-Il and those of the KCNA…

Korean War Peace Treaty

Korean War Peace Treaty

Song Min-Soon will visit the United States next month to discuss a Korean War peace treaty to replace the armistice. There has already been, and there will be much more, talk on the role of US forces on the Korean peninsula after the signing of a peace treaty.

On Friday, Foreign Minister Song stated that US forces will remain committed on the Korean Peninsula after the signing of a Peace Treaty. Indeed, if there ever were conflict on the Korean peninsula, US assistance would be essential.

However, arguably, the support of other coalition partners would also prove important. Other coalition partners not only aid US forces in niche military roles but also provide greater credibility to the use of force.  What has not been considered in Korean debate regarding a Korean War Peace Treaty is the fact that while US forces would remain committed after the signing, other coalition partners that were involved in the Korean War would not.

On the same day that representatives of the UN Command signed the Korean War Armistice in Kaesong, the sixteen states that sent troops to the Korean War under the UN flag signed the ”Joint Policy Declaration Concerning the Armistice in Korea”, far away in Washington. The Joint Policy Declaration confirmed the resolve of the signatories to resist any new armed attack, in the interest of world peace and in accordance with the principles of the United Nations.

This declaration is in diplomatic terms, something of a wild card. Arguably, it does not legally require the signatories to defend South Korea, but it does give them the legal justification to do so, should South Korea’s security be threatened. If the Armistice is replaced by a Peace Treaty, the Joint Policy Declaration becomes void.

Accordingly, signing a Peace Treaty has substantial implications that must be thought through. South Korea only has one security partner. In comparison, other regional middle powers have diversified security relationships. Singapore, for example, has formal arrangements with the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the United States as well as the ASEAN structure. Australia has formal arrangements with New Zealand, the US, UK, Japan and Indonesia. Should the United States leave, for whatever reason, the neighborhood is a damned ugly place for a middle power?

Has the South Korean Government fully thought through the implications of a Peace Treaty? I really think we need to be certain that North Korea’s nuclear programs are fully dismantled before we sign a Korean War Peace Treaty – because calling for world help will never be as easy as it was in 1950…

As usual, there’ll be plenty more discussion on this at Marmot’s Hole – though just like Korean language debate, there will probably be no mention of those other states that also made guarantees to Korean security.

Unification Costs

Unification Costs

A ROK National Assembly Special Committee on Budget and Accounts has estimated that unification could cost around 1 trillion dollars – yes, 1 trillion – with the cost increasing further over time.

The report notes the difference in timing. If unification occurs in 2015, it could cost around $858 billion over 10 years to absorb the North. If unification occurs in 2030, it could cost $1.32 trillion.

On the positive side, there could be benefits through decreased military spending, new markets in North Korea as well as cheaper land and labor.

More on the report at the Korea Times. I guess that’s why economic cooperation projects are a priority…